"...fascinating, disturbing, and neccessary...
"

...fascinating, disturbing. (Short Book Reviews, Publication of the International Statistical Institute )

Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.

Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.

Richard A. Posner is Judge of the U.S. Court Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, and a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School. He is the author of numerous books, including Overcoming Law a New York Times Book Review editors' choices for best book of 1995 and An Affair of State, one of their choices for Best Book of the Year in 1999.

2005-07-01 A farrago of fear and frustration

The cliche of fearing only those who are afraid surely holds true for this book. It's nearly a catastrophe in its own right. Posner, a judge, wants lawyers to sit in judgement of which research should go forward and which curtailed. He has lined up a string of threats we face in terms of "catastrophic" loss of human life. There are bolides cruising in space eager to smash into our planet and repeat on us what one did to the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Physicists tinkering with subatomic particles could trigger a reaction that would shrink the Earth to a sphere 100 metres across. "Bioterrorism" is the next thrust from "America's" off-shore enemies. What to do to counter this litany of disaster? He insists we need a policy to address each of them.

Posner analyses the various challenges to continued human existence. For each threat there is a "risk assessment" examining the probabilities of its occurring. From the assessment, there is a "cost-benefit" calculation to determine how much to spend to prevent the catastrophe. How likely is the impact of another asteroid extinguishing much or all of human life? How much need we spend to deflect it? What is the true cost of the Kyoto protocol? Posner puts dollar values on each of these in terms of likelihood of the event transpiring and the cost of countering it.

Significantly, Posner posits the threats and their solutions to his countrymen. These are "American" problems and must be dealt with in an "American" environment. He patronisingly grants some UN ageny involvement on a few issues, but these are limited to areas the UN is already dealing with or ones the USA has disdained. The British pre-emption of interest in rogue asteroid is given a nod, then passed over. Keeping the focus on what the USA must do in countering, Posner ignores the element of his society that must accept or reject these numbers and the costs involved. Even the most clumsy estimate of cost per taxpayer would have given this analysis some basis in reality. Posner, however, must suspect that the figure would likely be too high for taxpayers to cope with. He concedes the point in his claim that the costs of adhering to Kyoto would be disproportionately high for his countrymen.

There are so many inconsistencies and self-contradictions in this book they defy listing here. He condemns the Kyoto Protocol as too restrictive on one hand and costing the USA too much on the other. He ignores the fact that this Kyoto is a beginning, not an end. He also bypasses the reality of his own country being the world's biggest consumer of resources and exporter of greenhouse gases. He condemns foreign students who return to home countries and urges strengthening of restrictions on what they're allowed to study. This in the face of his braggadocio about the high levels of American science and education. That these departing foreign students are taking expertise to solve problems in their own lands seems to have eluded him. He rants about keeping foreign students away from "lethal toxins" and ignores the number of these that occur naturally and cause death or disfigurement in humans and livestock - even in the technologically superior USA. How many "enemies" would be generated by the constraints he proposes?Finally, how he expects lawyers to gain enough expertise in science to sit in judgement of which research should go forward in a nation unable to come to grips with natural selection remains an enigma. It's commendable that Posner raises the list of threats the entire planet faces. His chauvinist solutions bear little relation to the reality of today's world. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]