2006-04-23 Zephyrs of mass destruction

The "debate" over climate change, its causes and impacts, is beginning to wind down. Anyone asserting that climate change isn't occuring, or denying that humanity is a major factor in global warming, is living in the dark. What is of concern now is the determination of how the mechanisms work. One aspect of those mechanisms is learning how rapidly the change can occur. According to Linden, even naturally occuring climate change can be swift and tumultuous. In this well-written account, the author reviews the evidence for early climate shifts and their impact on early human societies. He follows the scientists and their research results in building a framework for how climate works, and what its past impact has been. Linden reminds his readers that however they consider climate, they must remember that it is the background "playing field" in which our society operates.

If any one term permeates this narrative, the word is "flicker". No word better imparts the idea that a shift in climate, once started, enters a raceaway path. Long used to relatively stable climate, our species has little concept of how swiftly regional, or even global long-term weather patterns, can alter. Linden finds the rapidity of change the major threat for our society, just as it eliminated ancient ones. His primary example is an uncompleted wall in the Akkadian site of Tell Leilan. From the evidence, workers simply "downed tools" or were ordered to stop. Drought had curtailed the food supply. Today, the causes of such events are better known. From an interrupted North Atlantic Current to the vagaries of El Nino, Linden explains how changes in these phenomena have long-reaching effects. When the complexities of climate change encounter the complexities of civilisation, the results can only be momentous. When the climate change is rapid, the effect can be catastrophic. Ask the Moche, Mayan societies or the Norse in Greenland. As the book repeatedly demonstrates, shifts in climate have obliterated stable societies. The present one is just as vulnerable as the ancient ones and, unlike the earlier civilisations, there is no place to relocate to in the event of harsh conditions.

In one sense, this book could be considered as "Collapse Lite". Jared Diamond's account of vanished civilisations is marked by a combination of natural forces and human folly. Linden is less condemnatory of our hubris, but warns that our studied ignorance of natural climate issues could blindly lead us to disaster instead of discomfort. Like Diamond, Linden recognises that the US, as the planet's leading polluter, must take the most immediate and long-term steps in both curbing the pollution and preparing for its effects. Although a less massive tome, Linden's book is more comprehensive and direct in its findings and recommendations. He lists sufficient human disasters due to climate that he can dub it a "serial killer". While our present condition appears stable, it likely seemed similar to the ancients. Yet, they were overwhelmed by unanticipated shifts of climate.

There are many reasons to recommend this book. The writing is less polemical than some of the recent books on the subject. On the other hand, Linden is unequivically harsh with climate change "skeptics" and the current US administration for its failure to recognise and address the issues involved. The author's approach is clearly mass market, but he shouldn't be condemned for that. The complexities of climate change, if not readily grasped, must at least be introduced to the widest possible audience. It is the reading public which must demand action from political leaders. That public will be the ones most effected if abrupt climate shifts are in the forecast for tomorrow. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]